Don’t Believe the Hype: TECHnalysis Research Forecasts Modest Growth for Smart Wearables

Smart Wearables Under 10 Million Units and $2.1 Billion in Revenues in 2014; Grow to 70 Million and $12.1 Billion in 2018

Foster City, CA, April 2, 2014: TECHnalysis Research, LLC announced the release of its smart wearables market forecast showing a modest opportunity for the often over-hyped category in the near term, growing into a respectably-sized business by the end of the five-year forecast period.

Specifically, the firm believes worldwide unit shipments for the overall wearables category—defined as intelligent devices that are worn somewhere on the human body and that generate and/or display and/or communicate digital information—will hit about 9.9 million units in 2014, generating revenues of $2.09 billion US dollars. Approximately 78% of the units and 81% of the revenues will come from the US this year. By 2018, the worldwide numbers will hit 70.5 million units and $11.7 billion in revenues and the US percentages will drop to 53% and 54% respectively.

TECHnalysis Research split the wearables category into six separate sub-categories, defined primarily by where on the body the device is worn. The categories are:

• “Head-worn” wearables, such as smart glasses
• “Wrist-worn” wearables, split into separate categories for smart watches and smart bracelets
• “Ear-worn” wearables, such as smart headset or earbuds
• “Finger-worn” wearables, such as smart rings
• “Other wearables” for devices that don’t fit into the other categories, such as smart necklaces, pins, etc.

“The biggest opportunity both in the near-term and in the longer term is for the wrist-worn categories: smart bracelets and smart watches,” according to TECHnalysis Research founder and chief analyst Bob O’Donnell. “Consumers have already shown a proclivity to activity-tracking smart bracelets and with all the current and future development focused on smart watches, that category will also play an important role. Head-worn wearables, like Google Glass, on the other hand, are likely to disappoint as high price points, privacy concerns, and long-term wearable comfort issues will keep the category in the niche realm.”

The TECHnalysis Research smart wearables report includes worldwide and US unit shipments, average selling prices and revenues for each of the six subcategories from 2014 through 2018. Because of the highly dynamic nature of the market, the report also includes three different scenarios for the US and worldwide unit shipments:

• A baseline (or most likely) scenario
• An optimistic scenario, based on an assumption that several large vendors have big “hit” products in the category, drawing an even wider set of customers to wearables
• A pessimistic scenario, based on an assumption that the markets will not expand much beyond the early adopters that have started purchasing wearables

The report also includes a detailed analysis of some of the major components and technologies expected to play a critical role in the evolution of the wearables market, such as wireless charging, and includes an in-depth review of the opportunities and threats facing wearables as a whole, as well as each of the separate categories.

A copy of the 49-page forecast document is available for purchase from TECHnalysis Research. For additional information, please e-mail the author at bob@technalysisresearch.com.

Founded by technology market research veteran Bob O’Donnell, TECHnalysis Research, LLC provides strategic consulting and market research services to the technology industry and professional financial community. Building on a deep understanding of critical technology and business trends, in conjunction with hard-hitting, original research, the firm provides unique "out-of-the-box" perspectives that are still grounded in the practical realities of the technology, media and telecom markets.

You can download a copy of this press release in Microsoft Word format here.